No More IT Pros Needed

Hanging on to outdated ideas is a common human trait.  In the 21^st century, the future comes at us so quickly that unless we continually compare our beliefs with what we see happening around us we get left behind by events.  That’s some thing I’ve talked a lot about on these pages, and there seems to be a deep ocean from which to draw examples.  I noticed two news articles recently that illustrate this phenomenon.

Both articles are from eWeek.  In the first, titled US Technology Czar Says More IT Workers Needed, Robert Cresanti, the Undersecretary of Commerce and Technology, complains, “There are not enough [U.S.] engineers with appropriate skills sets” to successfully compete with the rest of the world.

It seems Mr. Cresanti has made a trip to China and is very impressed with the number of engineers the country is producing.  “Virtually every senior government official I met was an engineer,” he told eWeek.  “They are ramping up in the most profound way.  Math and science are ingrained.”

After his experience in China Cresanti thinks the US needs to train more US engineers and IT professionals.  He’d like to see more engineering students in our schools, as well as an increase in H-1B visas.

All that sounds fine, but right next to the article reporting Mr. Cresanti’s call for more IT workers is an article on IT worker confidence.  It seems the folks in IT are not very optimistic about having and keeping IT jobs.

In an article titled, Sensing a Bubble, IT Worker Optimism Plunges, eWeek summarizes a Spherion survey released on October 24.

Spherion found that IT workers confidence in both their personal employment situation, as well as the general outlook on the economy, is hovering around 54%, about five points lower than the population at large.  Fully 44% reported that they felt that fewer jobs are available compared to the previous quarter, and only 52% of IT professionals were confidant that could find a new job if they lost their current one.

There seems to be a huge gulf between what the US Undersecretary of Commerce and Technology sees in the IT sector and what the people actually working in the IT sector are seeing.  At the same time that Mr. Cresanti is calling for training more IT professionals, the IT professionals already in the workforce are finding it difficult to land jobs, and they don’t seem to believe that things will change soon.

Someone needs to tell Mr. Cresanti that the United States economy is centered on service, not manufacturing.  In the IT sector, this means that we might need a few IT professionals to design software, but virtually all the manufacturing and maintenance functions are now being carried out in Asia – and manufacturing and maintenance is where the engineering jobs are concentrated, no matter what the industry. 

We simply have little need for IT pros here.  Even administrators of computer networks and databases are having a difficult time finding jobs because there is a glut of skilled professionals in the market.  Without a vibrant IT manufacturing sector – like the one that so impressed Mr. Cresanti during his China visit – there is little need for most varieties of IT engineers.

The domestic IT sector has taken advantage of so many productivity techniques that we simply need very few people to keep things running.  A few engineers in academia to research new technologies, a few more in private business to convert the discoveries into practical application, and then production is contracted to China.  India seems to have cornered the market on support with call centers and engineers ready to go anywhere in the world to address enterprise challenges.  The United States has established distinctive competency in finance, research, and marketing.  Even in those sectors, the job market is pretty well saturated with highly skilled professionals.

That means that opportunities for domestic IT engineers are concentrated in very narrow, highly specialized niches that last only as long as product research and development.  The days of long term job security of IT workers, (along with everyone else), is over because there is a steadily decreasing need for them.

Mr. Cresanti's error is in holding on to the belief that education and training are always good things.  That might have been true in the last century, but no longer.  Education and training must be relevant to the present and future economy.  Because manufacturing – especially IT related manufacturing – has shifted to emerging Asian economies there is little need for people whose education focuses on production.  And that means most engineers. 

By legitimizing outdated articles of faith, (in this case, that education is always an advantage), Mr. Cresanti’s remarks will only worsen the unemployment and underemployment situation in which many educated Americans now find themselves.